A new poll has the provincial election race tightening.
The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll gives the BC NDP a 4-point lead province-wide among decided voters, down from a 10-point lead in their previous poll, which came out on April 25.
Mainstreet President Quito Maggi says while the Greens have now fallen behind the NDP on Vancouver Island, they continue to show strength, and he thinks they’ll make an historic breakthrough on election night.
“I think they’ll have at least three. That could be the balance of power here, 45, 39 in seat count, with a few toss ups and so many close races. There’s about 10 ridings there that we expect to be razor, razor thin. It’s going to come down to candidate strength, it’s going to come down to organization.”
Maggi says the NDP continue to lead the Liberals on the Lower Mainland, and they are now leading the Greens on Vancouver Island, but the Liberals hold a big lead in the Interior.
“But it’s really, really hard with these numbers to predict an outcome. Yes, the NDP has the lead, because of vote flips and some of the regional differences. The seat count is probably neck and neck.”
Maggi says it will all come down to a few ridings.
“When you look down at the riding level, when you factor in the strength of some incumbents, and star candidates, it’s going to come down to those, and it’s going to come down to, you know, ten or fewer ridings where we’re going to see really, really close races.”
He notes if the race tightens up by a few more points on the Lower Mainland, Liberals incumbents could be re-elected.
1,650 respondents were surveyed between April 29 and May 1, and the margin of error is plus or minus 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.