A victory for Donald Trump, although chances are more remote in the most recent polling, could have some far reaching effects on the Canadian economy.
Both the Canadian dollar and cross border trade would feel an immediate negative effect of Trump coming out on top, with the protectionist rhetoric of tearing up the free trade agreement, an unlikely scenario but certainly a possibility, both exports and the loonie would suffer immediately.
Although Hilary Clinton will be more careful regarding trade she would probably continue on the Obama path and accept some sort of globalization, and is not seen to give up on trade with either Mexico or Canada, as benefits for the US flow both ways.
After the big rally yesterday in US stocks as the spectre of a continuing FBI investigation on Clinton was lifted Sunday, markets this morning are going sideways, awaiting the results.
A Trump victory could see an immediate negative reaction to financial markets worldwide, however JP Morgan Chases puts together the following scenario on gold and the Canadian dollar.
The day after the election the Canadian dollar, according to JPM: 70.4 cents after a Trump victory and 76.9 cents if Clinton wins.
For Gold it would be a dramatic effect the day after, $1,350 per ounce if Trump is victorious and $1250 per ounce with a Clinton victory. These are only forecasts, but you get the picture.
More tomorrow morning.