As expected leading up to the presidential election the polls are beginning to tighten and the markets are racing to re-price for the prospects of a President Trump scenario.
Credit Suisse put it succinctly in a note to clients this morning saying, “it could really happen.”
One thing that disrupts markets more than anything is uncertainty, and there is plenty of that to go around in the next six days.
The U.S. dollar falling, particularly against the Mexican peso, gold is heading back over $1,300, and the VIX, heading higher as uncertainty continues to grow as that volatility index linked to investor uncertainty climbs.
As in this morning’s Globe & Mail, markets aren’t forecasting a Trump victory per se but highlighting the difference between polling numbers, like FiveThirtyEight’s reputable Nate Silver, who sees over 70% chance of a Clinton victory, versus the LA Times overnight poll has Trump ahead by six points.
With all this, stand back: The markets will be all over the place in the final six days of this campaign.