A new exclusive Ipsos poll for Global News and CKNW shows the B.C. NDP starting the campaign in the lead.
But Christy Clark still edges out John Horgan on who respondents think will make the best Premier, but that’s within the margin of error.
The poll, conducted using both online and phone methodology, shows B.C. NDP support at 44 per cent, giving them a slight lead over the B.C. Liberals at 39 per cent.
The Greens are further back at 12 per cent.
While this may seem like good news for the New Democrats, there are problems.
Disclaimer: We know likelihood of poll predicting #bcelexn17 (esp. month away) slim but it paints pic of moment in time. Still interesting
— Charmaine de Silva (@char_des) April 11, 2017
Ipsos Senior VP Kyle Braid says, just like last time, that lead is driven by younger voters.
“Among those in the 18 to 34 age group, the NDP has almost a 20 point lead. But among voters over the age of 35, it is essentially a tie.”
The poll of 1,388 British Columbians has a margin of error of three per cent.
What issues do British Columbians care about the most?
The poll also shows health care and housing affordability are top of mind for most British Columbians.
Sometimes things that are the big issues at the start of the campaign end up fading away by the end. The other thing that’s pretty close to the top is that if you take the issues of economy and jobs together, they’re also fairly close to those issues of health care and housing.”
The poll shows the BC NDP performs best on social issues, housing affordability, education and health care.
While the BC Liberals led on the economy, jobs and transportation.
The BC Greens perform best on the environment.
The poll also shows 17 per cent think Horgan is the most trustworthy.
Clark sits at 14 per cent, while Weaver is at 12 per cent.
“I think at this point, a lot of people who checked the box for John Horgan probably don’t even know much about him….so these numbers are shaky at best at this point,” says Braid, who thinks this will likely change.
The poll also shows there’s opportunity for the B.C. Greens.
Although the numbers show, early in the campaign, the Greens trailing both the B.C. NDP and B.C. Liberals, the party is a favourite second choice.
Braid says the opportunity comes if people get dissatisfied with one of the two main parties.
“NDP voters, if they decide they don’t like the NDP, most of them will go over to the green. Liberals are about equally as likely to go over to the Greens and the NDP.”
Overall support for the B.C. Greens is at 12 per cent, but that climbs to 19 per cent on Vancouver Island.