If you want to know how the Presidential election is going to turn out in the U.S., you may not have to go much further than the stock market.
The U.S. market has long been the accurate forecaster of the outcome, and since 1928 U.S. equities have correctly predicted the winner nineteen out of 22 times.
Quite simply, when stocks are higher in the months before the November election, the sitting party, the Democrats in this case, were the victors.
Now it is almost five months until election day, and even though the market is performing very well for the Democrats right now, a lot could go wrong between now and the first Tuesday in November.
And with the S and P at all time record highs, the signal of the higher stock market has proved accurate for the past eight Presidential elections, but many detractors say the market is peaking too early and the U.S. economy is not performing as well as the equity markets would make it out to be.
However, I for one will go with the odds.